PREDICTIONS OF LAND USE/LAND COVER CHANGE, DRIVERS, AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS ON WATER AVAILABILITY FOR IRRIGATION IN THE VEA CATCHMENT, GHANA

Abstract

Assessment and prediction of land use/land cover change using spatiotemporal data are of great importance for better environmental monitoring, land use planning, and management. Therefore, the objective of this study is to predict LULC change, its driving factors and impact on water availability for irrigation in the Vea catchment, Ghana. CA-Markov model was used to predict land-use changes in 2038 and 2054. Terrset geospatial monitoring and modeling system software was used to run the model. The Relative Importance Index was used to identify major drivers of the LULC change. The results showed an increase in cropland from 181 km2 in 2038 to 183 km2 in 2054 at the expense of grassland and mixed vegetation/forest, which are expected to decrease from 51–50 km2 and 73–71 km2 , respectively. Population growth and agricultural expansion are among the leading drivers of LULC change in the Vea catchment. The CA-Markov model shows a continued increase in anthropogenic land uses, negatively affecting irrigation water availability and landscape sustainability. These results provide a foundation for sustainable land use governance through responsible planning and management of land and water resources by considering trade-offs between LULC change and water availability for irrigation in the Vea catchment.