FORCASTING THE NUMBER OF DEATHS THROUGH ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN THE UPPER WEST REGION OF GHANA

Abstract

Many lives are lost yearly due to road traffic accidents worldwide. Apart from the psychological trauma that comes with these loses, economic and educational activities are also adversely affected. This work investigated the number of deaths through road traffic accident in the Upper West Region of Ghana by adopting a survey research method. Autoregressive Integrated Moving average (ARIMA) models were employed. The target population comprised of stakeholders including the Police service; Motor Transport and Traffic Unit from 2008 to 2012. The study variables based on the police report include the number of dead cases, age, gender and type of vehicles. The analysis was done using MINIT AB. Data collected were subjected to statistical analysis and modeling, such as trend analysis and other descriptive analysis. The time series plot and the quadratic trend model revealed that there was an increasing trend in the death rate through road traffic accidents, number of deaths depend on time-period; ARIMA (2,1,3) fit the number of deaths through the road traffic accidents recorded. Furthermore, the forecast of this model showed a fluctuating trend. Based on these findings, it was recommended that; the vehicle inspection officers (VIO) should increase their inspections on road worthiness of many vehicles and the motor traffic and transport unit (MTTU) of the Ghana Police Service (GPS) should curb excessive speeding on our roads.