TIME SERIES ANALYSIS OF NUMBER OF INJURED ON ROAD TRAFFIC ACCIDENTS IN THE UPPER EAST REGION OF GHANA

Abstract

Road traffic accidents which are generally preventable are a common risk to life. In trying to curb the situation of road traffic accidents, researches have been done using various approaches. Some of the existing works in this area include multiple regression analysis used to study the causal factors of road traffic crashes in some selected states in South Western part of Nigeria. So far, most researchers have ignored injury rates and hence the need. This study gears towards the number of injured, the type of vehicles vulnerable to road traffic accidents in the Upper East Region of Ghana and to forecast the future trend. Secondary data were collected from the Regional Police Station; Motor Transport and Traffic Unit from 2007 to 2011 covering a period of five years. The study variables based on the police report include the number of injury cases, alcohol, age, sex, type of vehicle and speed. The analysis was done using MINIT AB. From the analysis, it was realized that there were seasonal effects of injury in the region and motor bikes were more vulnerable to road traffic accidents. Also, the model that fits the data for this study IS Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, SARIMA (0,0,0)( 1,0,1 )12. There is a slight reduction trend in the injury rate.